Insider: Short of War

Money Talks and Hunger Walks: Buying Down State-Actor Influence Risk

by Tom Johansmeyer, a PhD candidate in international conflict analysis at the University of Kent.
When natural disasters strike, foreign actors often exploit food insecurity to spread disinformation and influence vulnerable populations. In this episode, Tom Johansmeyer proposes an innovative solution: parametric insurance that provides rapid economic relief to affected communities. Learn how this financial tool could help counter foreign influence operations while delivering humanitarian aid to those who need it most.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
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The Day After Nasrallah: Succession and Strategic Opportunities

by Alexandra Veyne, the Chief Human Resources Officer of the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
 
In this analysis of Hezbollah's leadership crisis, Alexandra Veyne examines the strategic implications of Hassan Nasrallah's elimination and his successor Naim Qassem's appointment. She argues that Qassem's lack of charisma and weaker leadership profile could prove more devastating to Hezbollah than continued tactical strikes. Drawing on Shi'i political dynamics and organizational theory, Veyne suggests that Israel's strategic interests might be better served by allowing an ineffective leader to remain in power while supporting Lebanese opposition forces, rather than pursuing another high-profile assassination.
 
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
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Beyond Binaries: Cyber Force Generation and the SOCOM-like Model

This article is part of Project Cyber, which explores and characterizes the myriad threats facing the United States and its allies in cyberspace, the information environment, and conventional and irregular spaces. Please contact us if you would like to propose an article, podcast, or event environment. We invite you to contribute to the discussion, explore the difficult questions, and help.
 
This essay examines the debate around adopting a Special Operations Command (SOCOM)-like model for U.S. Cyber Command's force generation and recruitment needs. The authors argue that while senior military leaders frequently advocate for applying the SOCOM model to cyber forces, this recommendation is based on unexamined assumptions and may not address Cyber Command's unique challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining qualified personnel. The paper also challenges the perceived binary choice between adopting a SOCOM-like model or creating an independent cyber service, suggesting that a hybrid approach combining elements of both might be more effective. Ultimately, the authors call for more detailed analysis and planning before committing to any particular force generation model, emphasizing that Cyber Command needs to clearly define its goals and requirements in light of growing threats from adversaries like China.
 
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

“I Want to Live”: Psychological Warfare for the Modern Era

Peter Schrijver is a Ph.D. researcher affiliated with the Netherlands Defence Academy. His academic interests focus on Ukraine’s operations in the information environment.
 
This essay analyzes Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project, a modern psychological operations (PSYOP) campaign that uses smartphones and social media to encourage Russian soldiers to surrender. The project, launched in September 2022, represents a significant evolution in military PSYOPs by leveraging digital technology to directly reach enemy forces with personalized messages, video testimonials from POWs, and practical surrender instructions. While the project has shown significant success - with over 48 million website visits and hundreds of Russian surrenders - the author also explores ethical concerns about the use of POW testimonials and discusses how this campaign reflects broader changes in modern warfare where battles increasingly take place in digital spaces.
 
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
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Israel, Hezbollah, and Arab Hostility

by Amir Asmar, a former senior executive and Middle East analyst in the US Department of Defense.
 
Amir Asmar examines Israel's latest military campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah and what it reveals about the limitations of military solutions to fundamentally political problems. Drawing on decades of experience as a Middle East analyst, Asmar traces how Israel's repeated military interventions in Lebanon have often strengthened rather than weakened its adversaries, while arguing that lasting security might require addressing underlying territorial disputes. His analysis offers fresh insights into both the current crisis and potential paths forward, including a critical examination of the U.S. role in promoting regional stability.
 
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

Ukraine’s Railway Wars: How to Sabotage Russian Military Logistics

by Doug Livermore the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
 
In this eye-opening analysis, Doug Livermore examines Ukraine's sophisticated sabotage campaign against Russia's railway infrastructure and its critical impact on the war effort. Drawing parallels to World War II resistance operations, the article details how Ukrainian special forces and intelligence services work with both Ukrainian and Russian partisan groups to exploit vulnerabilities in Russia's rail-dependent military logistics. The piece highlights several successful operations, including the recent Severomuysky tunnel attack, while offering insights into how this unconventional warfare strategy could be expanded and applied to future conflicts.
 
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

Bridging the Gap: Why Conventional Forces Need Irregular Warfare Training

By Austin Wesley, a US Army officer.
 
This essay argues that the US Army must break its cycle of neglecting irregular warfare (IW) by fully integrating IW concepts into its Professional Military Education (PME) for conventional forces. Drawing lessons from Vietnam and Iraq, the author demonstrates how the Army's focus on Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) has repeatedly left it unprepared for irregular conflicts. The piece emphasizes that IW is not solely the domain of Special Operations Forces, but a critical competency for all Army personnel. It proposes specific changes to PME, including early and frequent exposure to IW concepts, incorporation of IW into planning exercises, and instruction by conventional force leaders. The author contends that these changes are essential for preparing the Army to effectively wage both conventional and irregular warfare in support of joint force operations.
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

Partners in Peril: Hybrid Threats Come for Jordan

By Anthony Marco a US Army officer and advisor to the Irregular Warfare Initiative's Proxies and Partners Special Project. This article is part of Project Proxies and Partners, which explores the promises and pitfalls of security cooperation in war, at peace, and in between.
 
Anthony Marco examines the complex security challenges facing Jordan, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. Marco analyzes how Iran, Hamas, and the Muslim Brotherhood are leveraging hybrid warfare tactics, including disinformation campaigns and weapons smuggling, to destabilize the Jordanian monarchy. The author argues that while Jordan has played a crucial role in regional counterterrorism efforts and in countering Iranian aggression, it faces growing internal and external threats that could potentially upend the regional balance of power. Marco concludes by proposing that the United States should develop a comprehensive strategy to strengthen Jordan's military capabilities and political resilience, emphasizing the need for enhanced foreign internal defense, counterterrorism support, and military information support operations to complement ongoing efforts to bolster Jordan's conventional military strength.
 
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

Decapitating The Hydra: Iran’s Response Options To Israel’s Offensive

by Doug Livermore the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative.
 
This essay analyzes Israel's recent strikes against Iran's proxy forces, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. It examines the strategic implications of these operations, which have significantly degraded Tehran's regional influence network. The author explores Iran's limited response options, constrained by the loss of key proxy capabilities, internal instability, and the threat of overwhelming Israeli and Western retaliation. The piece considers the credibility dilemma Iran now faces and speculates on potential moves by remaining proxies like Iraqi militias. Ultimately, the essay argues that while Israel's actions may weaken Iran's regional power in the short term, the long-term effects will depend on Tehran's ability to adapt and potentially rebuild its proxy network.
 
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.
The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
 
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular

Call for Submissions: Policy Recommendations for the New Administration

By Tobias Bernard Switzer, the Editorial Director of the Irregular Warfare Initiative
 
When a new American president takes office on January 20th, they will confront a dangerous national security environment shaped by Irregular Warfare (IW) challenges. From cyber warfare and gray zone conflicts to terrorism and insurgency, these challenges demand immediate, actionable solutions.
The Irregular Warfare Initiative invites you to contribute fresh, pragmatic, and non-partisan policy recommendations to help shape the next administration’s approach to these threats. We welcome contributions from practitioners, policymakers, and academics alike.
 
The announcement and further details can be found at this link.
If you value reading the Irregular Warfare Initiative, please consider supporting our work. And for the best gear, check out the IWI store for mugs, coasters, apparel, and other items. Subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.
Until next time,
 
Keep Warfare Irregular